Wednesday, December 21, 2011

How many does it take?

Government never furthered any enterprise but by the alacrity with which it got out of its way. Henry David Thoreau

The number of bills that became law in Colorado in 2011: 330. Average number of pages of new rules issued by Colorado per year: 15,000. The 2010 Federal Register, which contains federal rules and regulations, is 81,405 pages long – you can buy a copy for $929.
 
How many laws does it take to create jobs? We keep hearing politicians talk about creating jobs. Unfortunately, too many politicians don’t really understand how jobs are created, or who creates them. Nor do they understand what prevents job creation. Here’s a hint: see paragraph one, above.
 
There is a pervasive idea that businesses are unwilling to invest because of uncertainty about taxes and regulations. But it’s not uncertainty that prevents business investment and hiring - it’s the certainty. We know with absolute certainty that federal, state, and local governments will continue to write more laws, rules and regulations that limit economic and personal freedom, and require us to beg favor from government officials just to make a living.

 Over 96,000 pages of new state and federal law, rules and regulations, and that doesn’t even include local governments. How many will you violate today? How could anyone possibly know?
 
Although I’m a registered Republican, I’m not particularly optimistic about the ability or willingness of either party to curb the appetite for more control. In 2010 when Democrats controlled both Colorado houses, 454 bills were signed into law. With Republicans controlling one house in 2011, one would hope for a 50% reduction in passed bills, but we got only a 28% reduction. Republican politicians tend to favor legislation that “favors business,” but that generally means favoring big business at the expense of small business. This is called “economic development,” Orwellian doublespeak for corporate welfare.
 
Democrats add more regulations to “help the little guy,” claiming to be the “party of the people,” but regulations almost always benefit larger businesses, and help only workers who are lucky enough to find and keep their jobs. For example, every year we see legislation advanced by Colorado democrats that would require businesses to provide paid time off for workers. Large businesses already do this, so it’s of no consequence to them. But small businesses and start-ups may not be able to afford it. This type of legislation from democrats hurts “the little guy.”
 
The cost of complying with regulations is astounding. A 2010 report from the US Small Business Administration estimated that in 2008, US businesses spent $1.75 trillion in order to comply with federal regulations. The Colorado Senate Republican Caucus extrapolates from that to conclude Colorado businesses’ cost of compliance with federal regulations was over $30 billion in 2008. That’s enough to pay for 500,000 good paying jobs, or 100,000 jobs in the top 1% of wage earners.
 
When I started my first small business in 1990, I was shocked at the cost of compliance. But I was thankful for Adams County government, who demonstrated common sense and flexibility in allowing me to build that business.  In 2008 however, it was entirely different. I was preparing to start a new business and found that government officials now strictly adhered to codes and regulations that added unnecessary costs, and were unwilling or unable to predict what other problems I might encounter.
 
My plans to start a small business that would have kept me working at something I love, would have employed six or eight people to start, would have filled one or more of those many empty retail spaces, and would have provided a valuable service for my customers, have been scrapped. As I contemplate whether to take on another business venture, I look at the regulatory landscape and have to wonder why anyone would bother trying to combat government to create a business. I applaud those who do, but I fear that fewer are willing or able to do so.

Sunday, December 4, 2011

Xcel Energy “Breaks Wind” Records for Rate-Payers

The Denver Post reports: 

Early on Oct. 6, Xcel Energy set a world record for electricity from wind power. Between 4 and 5 a.m. that day, 55.6 percent of the electricity consumed by Xcel’s 1 million customers in Colorado came from wind farms dotting the state. 

“We’re proud of that and believe it shows that wind is an important part of the portolio,” said Michelle Aguayo, an Xcel spokeswoman. 

While that seems like a tremendous accomplishment, let’s take a look at what was accomplished, and what it means for Xcel customers.

The record itself is not that impressive. In a recession at 4:00 in the morning, overall electric usage is pretty low. When the economy is humming along at full steam, manufacturers that require lots of electricity often add night shifts, because electricity often costs less at night, and it’s cheaper than building more production capacity. This creates more jobs. But in this economy, it’s a safe bet there ain’t much happening.  

October 6 was a high wind day. Portions of I-70 were closed that day from winds. In Denver, the wind uprooted power a light pole, which landed on a light-rail power line, delaying the trains. Lots of wind combined with a recession produced the record.

Wind energy costs up to 80% more than conventional power production. When Xcel brags that they broke a record for wind power generation, they are really saying that at 4 a.m. they produced high cost energy at a time that was once considered to be the least expensive time of day to buy electricity.

Let’s go a bit deeper in our analysis. Colorado has a 30% Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), meaning 30% of our electricity must come from renewable resources by 2020. The citizens voted in 2004 for a 10% standard, but a “too eager to please” legislature has since raised it twice. Solar and wind devices provide roughly one third of their rated capacities, because the wind doesn’t always blow and the sun doesn’t always shine. A wind farm rated at 100 megawatts will only deliver 33 megawatts. Because they mandated the 30% RPS, we must overbuild renewable generation by nearly three times.

That sounds great, right? Except that there is no way to store the power produced when the wind is blowing for use when it isn’t. Therefore we must have stand-by generation capacity that can meet all our electricity needs.

Coal power can’t easily or efficiently be “cycled”, meaning you can’t turn it off and on to complement wind speeds or sunshine. Some clean coal plants violate clean air standards because solar and wind are too variable. When they are cycled, their clean status is compromised.

Nuclear power, which has no carbon or other bad emissions, can’t be cycled at all. It can only be used for “baseline generation”, the lowest amount of electricity that gets used during a day. As we approach that 30% standard, nuclear can not be part of the mix, because sometimes all our power must come from renewables. The stand-by generation will all have to be quick cycling sources, such as oil or gas.

In recent years, technology has rapidly advanced to make coal a much cleaner fuel for electricity generation. Now that Colorado and President Obama have decided that coal will be eliminated or minimized as a fuel, there will be no incentive for further advancements in clean coal technology. Meanwhile, advancements in wind, solar, and storage technology are creeping along at a snail’s pace. Government interference is misdirecting research and resources.

Colorado’s Renewable Energy Standard is raising electricity costs when families and businesses are struggling, costing hardships and preventing job creation. The environmental savings, if there are any, are negligible. Readily available, clean burning fuels are being ignored, or shipped to China where they burn without the benefit of our clean technology, creating global pollution. It’s time to eliminate the arbitrary Renewable Portfolio Standard and let market forces, guided by sensible restrictions on pollution, determine how we will generate electricity for families and the businesses that create jobs.